The effect of land use planning (2006–2020) on construction land growth in China
Introduction
Conversion of natural and agricultural land to non-agricultural use has become the major feature of land-use change in most urbanized areas of the world, especially in developing countries (Liu et al., 2008, Angel et al., 2011, Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011, Liu et al., 2014a, Zhong et al., 2014a). With its unprecedented economic development since 1978, China's urbanization level increased to 52.57% in 2012 from only 17.92% in 1978, which made China one of the fastest urbanizing countries (CSSB[a], 2013). The quick boost of urbanization caused a high rate and massive scale of construction land expansion, and the area of built districts increased by 7.73% annually from 13,148 km2 to 35,633 km2 during the 1990–2012 period (CSSB[a] (China State Statistical Bureau)., 1991–2013, CSSB[a] (China State Statistical Bureau)., 2013). It is estimated that China's urbanization level will reach 70% in 2035 (CSSB[c], 2008), which will further promote the expansion of urban land. The rapid increase of non-agricultural land and quickly shrinking natural ecological space have led to serious socio-economic and environmental consequences (Foley et al., 2005), such as ecological environment deterioration, land erosion, arable land loss, traffic congestion, and housing shortages (Sarzynski et al., 2006, Zhao et al., 2006, Kim and Pauleit, 2007, Schetke et al., 2012), which are threats to regional sustainable development. To mitigate these negative effects and promote regional sustainable development, many countries have applied policy tools such as land use planning (Smith and Giraud, 2006, Halleux et al., 2012), master plan (Sharifi, Chiba, Okamoto, Yokoyama, & Murayama, 2014), green belts (Keil & Macdonald, 2016), urban growth boundaries (Dempsey and Plantinga, 2013, Tannier and Thomas, 2013), zoning (Bourgoin, Castella, Pullar, Lestrelin, & Bouahom, 2012), market regulation (Brueckner, 1990), and fiscal and taxation policies (James and Windsor, 1976, Anderson, 2005) to manage non-agricultural land growth (Fig. 1).
As one of China's growth management policies, land use planning plays an important role in controlling the expansion of construction land by regulating land use from the outset. Land use planning is formulated to coordinate the scheduling, spatial distribution, and scale of land growth, aiming to guide sustainable, healthy, and orderly urban development. Since the State Land Administration was established in 1986, three land use plannings have been implemented to control construction land growth and protect arable land. The first planning was not effectively implemented (Cai, Zhang, Zhao, & Shi, 2009); therefore, the second planning was put forward to replace it in 1999. However, the second planning could not effectively curb the rapid increase of non-agricultural land and prevent the rapid loss of arable land (Zhong, Mitchell, & Huang, 2014). In 2006, the third land use planning (2006–2020) was implemented, and it further enforced the controlling of the total scale of construction land. With the third planning implemented, although it was designed to rigorously control construction land growth, the actual amount of newly-added construction land increased by 3.43 million ha from 2006 to 2012, which exceeded the planned goal of The Outline of National General Land Use Plan in China (2006–2020) in the same period (SCC, 2008). Therefore, it is vital to assess the implementation effect of land use planning in this midterm period.
As a land use management tool, land use planning plays a comprehensive role in controlling construction land, and its effect has attracted scholars' attention. Till now, most research on the effect of land use planning has concentrated on housing and land markets (White & Allmendinger, 2003), housing supply and prices (Bramley, 1993, Monk et al., 1996), land fragmentation (Kim & Pauleit, 2007), exurbanization (Esparza & Carruthers, 2000), and so on. Only a few studies focus on the evaluation of land use planning's effectiveness on construction land growth management, while they always study a single city or several cities (Qian, 2013, Long et al., 2015). Therefore, it is necessary to provide general recognition of city implementation across a whole country, which can not only provide insight into the effect discrepancy among cities but also provide evidence for improving the effectiveness of planning and management. Thus, taking 288 cities as the research object and using econometric models, this study aims to assess the implementation effect of land use planning in different cities. There are three crucial questions solved: (1) whether land use planning has an effect in curbing construction land growth; (2) if so, to what extent it can effectively control the expansion of construction land; and (3) whether differences in effect exist among cities, and what those differences are.
Section snippets
Theoretical framework
China has established a top-down land use planning system. Currently, it is divided into five levels: nation, province, prefecture, county, and township. National planning is the guideline for other land use planning, and the lower-level government planning should conform to the upper-level government planning. The quota-based and zoning models are the core of China's current land use planning management system, and always work together to regulate land use and control farmland conversion (Cai
Data
The research object of this study comprises two types of cities: municipal-level cities and municipalities directly under the Central Government. Because of the data limitations in Lhasa and Sansha, they are not included in this study; therefore, a total of 288 cities are used for analysis. According to the “Adjustment of Urban Scale Division Standard” stipulation issued by the State Council in 2014, cities are divided into five grades: super megacities (population ≥ 10 million), megacities (5
The expansion of construction land during 2006–2012
Table 2 shows the construction land increase for different scales of cities. During 2006–2012, the total amount of construction land increased by 4829 km2 annually and reached 33,806 km2, with a growth rate of 11.69%. The expansion of construction land happened in all different scales of cities. Among the cities, megacities have the most rapid land growth rate at over 15.00%, followed by large cities at the rate of 14.49%. By contrast, medium cities and small cities have relatively slower land
Positive effect of land planning in controlling construction land growth
According to the results of evaluation and the standards of effectiveness given in the previous section, the implementation of land use planning produced a positive effect; that is, the planning implementation did curb the increase of non-agricultural land in China. Some policies make the planning implementation effective. In China, land use planning is a top-down way and lower-level government planning should be in compliance with upper-level government planning. The non-agricultural land
Conclusions
Currently, China is in the stage of fast industrialization and urbanization, and the urban areas are developing quickly along with the rapid expansion of construction land. Land use planning is an important mean to control non-agricultural land growth reasonably, and its effectiveness needs to be assessed. To evaluate the implementation effect of the third plan, this study takes 288 cities as research subjects and analyzes them using econometrics models. The results show that the implementation
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