A LOT ON THE LINE
In 2008, Californians approved a high-speed rail project that has become one of the largest infrastructure projects in the nation. The dream of taking a train from Southern California to San Francisco in about three hours is chugging along, but facing new barriers.
WHAT VOTERS APPROVED
The original plan voters opted for in 2008 was titled the Safe, Reliable High-Speed Passenger Train Bond Act for the 21st Century. When voters approved the measure, the estimated cost of the project was $40 billion. The 2016 business plan reviewed by the Legislative Analysts Office estimated a cost of $64 billion.
What the final line would look like:
Estimated completion of Phase one is 2029.
HIGH-SPEED OPINIONS
Voted in favor
In 2008, 12.6 million people voted (79.4% of registered voters) on the high-speed rail proposition.
March 2016
A survey by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 34 percent of all adults thought high-speed rail was very important for California’s future.
The question was: Thinking ahead, how important is the high-speed rail system for the future quality of life and economic vitality of California?
CURRENT OBSTACLES
California’s high-speed rail project is currently one of the most extensive and expensive public works projects in the U.S. There are several recent developments that look to delay construction and could increase costs.
Bay Area Electrification: In February, federal transit authorities said they were withholding $647 million from Caltrain, the rail line between San Francisco to San Jose. This money is crucial to convert the rail engines from diesel to electric. The High-Speed Rail Authority has pitched in about $700 million for the conversion and is relying on its completion for high-speed track in the area.
The outlook: Caltrain and The High-Speed Rail Authority are making a case that the rail project is consistent with what the president wants regarding infrastructure upgrades, jobs creation and using steel and materials made in America. Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao is expected to make a decision on the funding soon.
Cap-and-trade shortfall: The state’s auction of carbon credits has fallen well below expectations recently, and much of the proceeds go to the high-speed rail project. The current political climate of wanting less environmental restrictions could create greater shortfalls for rail funding.
THE FIRST 100 MILES
In January the High-Speed Rail Authority submitted a letter to the State Legislature disputing a report that the Federal Railroad Administration was concerned about the management of the Rail Authority, and the construction of the first 119 miles was 50 percent over budget. The Rail Authority went on to assert that it is meeting deadlines and is under budget.
The first 29 miles of the Central Valley section was originally expected to be finished this year. The latest estimates from the rail authority are for August 2019.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SAN FRANCISCO
Phase one of the high-speed rail project will have a line from as far south as Anaheim and as far north as San Francisco. Here’s a breakdown of estimated travel times with different modes of transportation.
WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO BREAK EVEN
If the high-speed rail system averaged …
203.8 years of passengers paying $86 for a ticket to break even with the current $64 billion cost estimate.
Note: Estimates do not include the yearly maintenance of the rail system after it is finished.
Sources: California High-Speed Rail Authority, The Associated Press, Citizens for California High Speed Rail Accountability, National Transportation and Safety Administration, U.S. High-Speed Rail Association, Legislatvie Analyst’s Office
