Pools of driverless cars, designated aerial drone highways and intelligently interconnected transport. All the things that could make transport safer and more accessible for everyone are just around the corner.One of the developments with the biggest potential benefits and social impact is driverless vehicles. Consultants KPMG have predicted that the annual economic and social benefits for the UK from autonomous vehicles could be worth £51bn by 2030, with the greatest share going to the places where autonomous technologies are manufactured and actively introduced.
The UK government is keen for Britain to lead the way in developing driverless technology. This puts it ahead of many other countries. Under its proposed measures, rules will be changed so that automated vehicles can be insured for road use.
But despite optimistic predictions, the autonomous transport revolution faces a precarious journey with no smooth pathway or inevitable outcome. Genetically modified crops were once believed to be the solution to serious global issues of food production, poverty and malnutrition, but adamant opposition and tainted public opinion has meant a block on their mainstream use for the foreseeable future. The threat is that driverless vehicles could be derailed in a similar way.
Social benefits
We need to be clear from the outset about the social benefits and long-term benefits for public services and regional planning. At the moment, 93% of road accidents are said to be caused by human error; by 2030, again predicted by KPMG, the introduction of driverless vehicles could save 2,500 lives and reduce the number of serious accidents by 25,000 each year.
Greater traffic management could reduce congestion, journey times, CO2 emissions and noise. Use of unstaffed aerial vehicles for deliveries and some public services such as security and monitoring could cut traffic volumes. Driverless vehicles won’t need to be parked in crowded central areas, but out of town. Less traffic, and the ability of autonomous vehicles to get out of the way quickly and to alert other vehicles, could also mean better access for emergency vehicles. Roads and central public areas could be safer for pedestrians through anti-collision and speed control technology.
There’s more: supporters say autonomous vehicles could help public sector workers tackle ageing population issues. More than 1 million UK drivers are aged over 80. Driverless cars could allow mobility and independence for elderly people, without having to rely on subsidised public transport.
They could also offer local authorities a lower-cost option for delivering services such as security, environmental monitoring and refuse collection. Fewer accidents and risks means lower insurance costs. Investment in the necessary infrastructure could be recouped by attracting more business and residents, looking for next-generation access and mobility.
The select committee on science and technology is looking at how to such innovations could be delivered, and how the UK could make the most of its early developmental strengths, combining the new tech with existing infrastructure. We’ve become used to existing assistive technologies in our cars, such as cruise control, self-parking or collision detection, but fully autonomous vehicles are something else. Sitting in or just driving alongside computer-controlled “robot” vehicles is an alien concept.
Technology tends to be more trusted when it is under human control – even when evidence suggests that the human element creates most of the problems. However, IT systems and technology of any kind have the potential to malfunction, meaning that accidents are possible, and these will be more complex and more unexpected than those we’re used to from those involving human misjudgments and mistakes.
Robust cybersecurity is essential. Effective systems will rely on transferring data to and from sensors, and also between vehicles and central control systems. In theory, that will mean a possible threat of cyberattacks causing damage to vehicles, injury to passengers and the potential to gridlock whole transport areas. This is where the public sector cost comes in – through ensuring a reliable, safe digital infrastructure for telecoms and the technology that allows autonomous vehicles to run.
Much of this technology is already available, and the benefits are clear enough. But to avoid a bumpy road to an autonomous future, strong collaboration is required. If we can deliver well-developed, safe technology, policymakers and the public will then be able to feel more confident about going driverless.
Professor Graham Braithwaite is director of transport systems at Cranfield University
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